The political landscape in Victoria is undergoing a dramatic transformation, with the rise of One Nation threatening to disrupt the traditional two-party system. This shift mirrors global trends, as populist movements gain momentum in the US, UK, and across Western Europe, challenging established center-right parties. But what does this mean for the upcoming Victorian election and the future of Australian politics?
The Populist Surge
One Nation, led by Pauline Hanson, is poised to make significant gains in the state election, potentially winning up to 30 seats. This would make them the second-largest party in parliament, a remarkable feat for a party that has never held a lower house seat in Victoria. The party's appeal lies in its ability to tap into the discontent of working-class voters, who feel left behind by mainstream politics. This is a global phenomenon, as seen with Donald Trump and Nigel Farage, and it's now hitting Victoria.
A New Political Reality
The election will be a contest between Labor, the Liberals, and One Nation, with the latter posing a serious threat to both major parties. The traditional Labor-Liberal rivalry is being overshadowed by the rise of an anti-establishment force that appeals to voters from diverse demographics. This shift challenges the very foundation of Australian politics, where the center-right and center-left have dominated for decades.
The Battle for Victoria
The fight for Victoria is crucial. If One Nation can establish a foothold here, it could sweep the nation, as Victoria is considered the most progressive state. The party's strategy is to exploit economic anxieties, particularly in outer suburban and semi-rural areas, where concerns about immigration and its impact on public services resonate. These areas have a higher proportion of non-university-educated workers and small business owners, who are more susceptible to populist messaging.
Labor's Dilemma
Labor finds itself in a tricky situation. The party must navigate the challenge of countering One Nation's appeal without alienating its own working-class base. The rise of One Nation is not just a political threat but also a reflection of deeper economic and social issues. The declining share of the economy paid to workers, growing wealth disparities, and the bleak prospects for younger generations have created a fertile ground for populist sentiments. An Essential poll from 2025 revealed that Labor voters were dissatisfied with the political system, indicating a broader discontent that One Nation is capitalizing on.
The Way Forward
Labor's strategy is to shift the focus to its pro-worker agenda and highlight the potential harm a One Nation-led government could bring. This approach is crucial, as dismissing One Nation supporters as cranks would be counterproductive. The party must engage with the underlying issues that drive support for populism, such as economic inequality and political disillusionment. The upcoming election in Victoria is not just about choosing a government; it's about the future of Australian politics and the role of populism in shaping it. The outcome will have significant implications for the country's political landscape, potentially leading to a new era of multi-party politics and a more diverse representation of ideologies.
